Baccarat
The high-roller's game, and the simplest one in the building. You are not playing cards — you are choosing which of two hands the shoe will favour, and the drawing rules make that choice for you.
By The Lucky's Desk · Published · Updated
The only three things you can bet on
Two hands are dealt: Player and Banker. Neither belongs to you. You bet on which one will finish closer to nine, or that they will tie. Then the cards are dealt according to a fixed table of rules and nobody at the table makes a single decision.
Totals are counted modulo ten. Tens and face cards count zero, aces count one, everything else counts its face value. A seven and a six is thirteen, which is a three. A nine and an ace is ten, which is zero — the dreaded "baccarat."
Eight or nine on the first two cards is a natural. The coup ends immediately and the higher natural wins.
The third-card rules
This is the part players find mystifying, so here it is completely. No natural on either side, and:
Player
- Total 0–5 — draws a third card.
- Total 6 or 7 — stands.
Banker
If Player stood, Banker draws on 0–5 and stands on 6 or 7. If Player drew a third card, Banker's action depends on that card:
| Banker total | Draws when Player's third card is |
|---|---|
| 0, 1, 2 | Always draws |
| 3 | Any card except 8 |
| 4 | 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 or 7 |
| 5 | 4, 5, 6 or 7 |
| 6 | 6 or 7 |
| 7 | Always stands |
You will never need to memorise this — the dealer applies it — but it explains the whole game. Banker acts after seeing what Player drew, and that information advantage is why Banker wins slightly more often, and why the house charges commission on it.
A coup, worked through
You bet $5,000 on Banker. The deal:
- Player: four of hearts, two of spades — total 6.
- Banker: king of clubs, five of diamonds — total 5.
Player stands on six. Banker, holding five with Player standing, draws. The card is the three of spades: five plus three is eight. Banker wins 8 to 6.
Your $5,000 is paid at 0.95:1 — $4,750 — because a 5% commission is taken from Banker wins. That commission is not a fee the house invented for fun; without it, Banker would be a positive-expectation bet for the player and the game would not exist.
Change one card. Give Banker the two of spades instead: five plus two is seven. Player's six loses to Banker's seven anyway. Give Banker the ace: total six, and it is a tie. Player and Banker bets push, and only a tie bet is paid.
The payout table
| Bet | Pays | Win probability | House edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banker | 0.95:1 | 45.86% | 1.06% |
| Player | 1:1 | 44.62% | 1.24% |
| Tie | 8:1 | 9.52% | 14.36% |
Banker is the best bet, Player is nearly as good, and the tie is one of the most expensive wagers in the entire casino — worse than any craps prop except "any seven," worse than every slot machine on the floor.
Why the tie bet is a trap
Ties happen about 9.52% of the time, or roughly one hand in ten and a half. An 8:1 payout would need ties to occur 11.1% of the time to break even. That shortfall is the 14.36%.
The bet is attractive for exactly the reason it is bad: it hits often enough to feel achievable and pays enough to feel worth chasing. Some properties offer 9:1, which drops the edge to about 4.85% — still roughly four times worse than Banker. We pay 8:1.
The correct number of tie bets to place across a career is zero, with one exception: when the story you are living needs a single enormous swing and you have already accepted the cost. That is a narrative decision, not a mathematical one.
Scorecards, streaks and the big road
Baccarat pits hand out scorecards. Players fill them in obsessively, tracking Banker and Player streaks, marking "dragon tails" and choppy patterns, then betting on the pattern to continue or break.
None of it predicts anything. Each coup is drawn from a shoe that is very nearly independent hand to hand, and the tiny dependency that does exist from card removal is far too small to overcome a 1% edge. The scorecard is a ritual that keeps players seated. It is not analysis.
The one genuine edge in baccarat's history — edge sorting, reading manufacturing asymmetries on card backs — required physical cards, a cooperative dealer and a lawsuit to follow. It does not apply here.
How our table differs from a real casino
We deal standard eight-deck Punto Banco with the exact drawing rules above and standard 5% commission. Two differences. First, our reveal is paced: cards turn over with a beat between them, and the table locks during that reveal so a coup cannot be abandoned halfway. Second, baccarat at Lucky's is where the money in the building actually sits. The stakes accepted here are the highest of any standard table, which makes it the fastest legitimate route to the ten million — and the fastest way to attract the wrong kind of interest from the floor.
Common questions
Is Banker always the right bet?
Mathematically yes, by 0.18%. Over a long session it is the difference between losing a little and losing slightly more.
Why is there a commission on Banker?
Because Banker acts last and wins more often. Without the 5% charge the bet would favour the player.
Does the shoe run out?
The eight-deck shoe reshuffles well before exhaustion, as at a real table.
What is "no commission" baccarat?
A variant paying Banker 1:1 but only 0.5:1 when Banker wins with six. It usually works out slightly worse. We do not deal it.
Compare baccarat's 1.06% against the rest of the building on the house edge page.